Week 11 begins tonight and hopefully there will be as many good opportunities as week 10 offered to bettors. Let’s review last week’s betting highlights and further down for stat nerds are all the leader boards, win, in the money and in the superfecta, percent’s and more!
The Betting Parlor
Saturday had the best ROI, return on investment, with the $2 win averaging 9-2 while on Thursday and Sunday it was right on the season average of 7-2. There was also a $2,460 pick-4, a $789 pick 3 which was a new high pay for the season, $628 trifecta all those bets are 50-cents and a 10-cent superfecta worth $420. But the high pay was a $30,925.20 for the 20-cent Pick 6 Jackpot on 1 lucky ticket holder collected the massive pot. It was not the largest pay-out of the season in fact not even close as the Pick 6 Jackpot paid more than $81,000 back on June 23rd and there was a $33,298 pay-out for the 50-cent Hi 5 on July 11th.
We have been tracking several of the bets all season their average daily pay-outs, season totals and odds. First let’s look at favorites this past week. We do not have these numbers for the season (yet) but it was interesting to see and how they played in this week’s pay-outs.
There were 25 races in week 10 and only 4 betting favorites won which is a paltry 16% well below the national average which is usually in the 30-35% range. However, that doesn’t mean the favorites ran poorly in fact only 2 of the betting favorites were not in the top 4 finishers meaning that 92% of the favorites were in the superfecta. They finished 2nd 7 times of 28%, 3rd 5 times at 20% and 4th 7 times at 28%. They were in the top 4 92%, top 3 60% and placed 2nd or 3rd 48% of the time.
This week also saw the return of higher pays for what are called the horizontal bets, the pick 3s, 4s, 5s and pick 6. Meantime, the vertical bets, the exacta, trifecta and superfecta’s dipped. Let’s dive into the wagers we have been following.
The $2 win has been as steady as she goes and has remained virtually the same all season. On Thursday, May 24 was the low mark of an average pay of $5.75 or 9-5 odds. Twice it has reached 6-1 on May 16, day 9, the average pay was $15.00 or 6-1 and on Thursday, July 8th the average $2 win paid $14.25 again 6-1. Those are the daily highs and lows while the season average has been far more steady. On day 1 it was 5-2 then 3-1 after the 2nd day. On day 3 it jumped to 7-2 then up to 4-1. Since day 4 the season average $2 win pay has been 4-1 a total of 7 days and has been 7-2 a total 13 days including the past 10 days straight. 3 days in the average season pay was $9.72 and 19 days later it is $9.67, a nickel difference.
The $1 Exacta continues to draw the larger pools over the trifecta and superfecta wagers because we suppose bettors believe it is easier to hit. However, the pay-off odds show it to be one of the worst bets. Like the $2 win it has been very steady with little movement either way. The high’s have been a couple of days where the pays reached 60-1 and even 67-1 but low was a miniscule 7-1 on May 24th where the average pay was $8.75. The season average was at it’s highest peak on day 1 at 30-1 and has fallen ever since. It dropped to 23-1 on day 2 and since then has bounced slightly from a 20-1 low on day 8 up to 28-1 on day 11, that was the high day of the season paying an average of $68 or 67-1. Over the last 10 days the average exacta odds have been either 25 or 26-1. So at least you know what you likely will get on your return.
A reminder for all bets less than $1 we double the pay-off for 50-cent bets to get the #-1 odds and in the superfecta since it is just a 10-cent bet we times it by 10. Now the trifecta or the tri is generally the 2nd favorite bet of the public when it comes to the vertical wagers. Other than opening day that set the season bar at it’s highest average return at 194-1 the pays were relatively low. Out of the 1st 13 days only 5 days were more than 100-1. The last nine days it is completely reversed with only 1 day averaging less than 100-1.
The high marks were on day 14, June 30th the average return was $184 or 366-1, The other 300-1 day was on day 9, June 16th where it was 305-1 with an average 50-cent pay of $153. The lowest days was day 13 where the pay-out was just 23-1 or an average of $12.49. The season average was highest on day 1 at 194-1 and quickly dropped to a low of 129-1 on day 13. In the 9 days since then with 8 of 9 days paying more than 100-1 the season average pay-off is at 137-1 or $69 for the 50-cent bet.
The 10-cent Superfecta has an amazing ROI and is helped with Emerald Downs reducing their take of the pot to just 15%. This leaves more money in the pot allowing for bigger pays and it has shown. The superfecta got off to a fast start with a $113 average return on the 10-cent bet on opening day. That equals a 1,134-1 pay-off. Much like the trifecta over the next 12 days lower pays reduced the average pay from the season high 1,134-1 on opening day down to a low of 533-1 on day 7. Since then it jumped back up to a high of 750-1 on day 14, June 30th and has bounced around and is now at 654-1.
The daily high pay-out was on day 14 where it paid an average of $195 or 1,952-1. Other big days were on day 11, father’s day where the super paid $156 per 10-cent ticket or 1,562-1 and was 1,523-1 on day 9, June 16th.
Why do we think the exacta is the worst ROI bet compared to the tri or super? Let’s take a look at some of these low day pays. Let’s go to Day 13, June 24th where the exacta paid an average of $8.75 per $1 ticket. On that same day the trifecta averaged $12.49 on the 50-cent ticket or 23-1 and the super paid an average of $13.14 on the 10-cent ticket which was 130-1.
In the 5th race, let’s say the exacta bettor is betting the traditional 3 horse box at a cost of $6. Let’s say they win and for their effort collect $9.70, a profit of $3.70. But if they would have spent another $6 for a total of $12 they could take the 3 horses they liked to run 1st and 2nd and then boxed the field for 3rd and 4th for a total $12.00 bet for the 10-cent superfecta. This is simply trying to pick the exacta and then including every possibility to run 3rd and 4th. That return was $48.82 or a $36.82 profit. For trifecta players they would have done the worst in this scenario, the bet would have cost $15 for a $12.85 return.
Why the big difference in pays? The 39-1 2nd longshot squeaked in for 4th place blasting up the superfecta pay while the other two bets had the top 2 and 4th favorite finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
On one of the big pay days, the 14th day on June 30th let’s take a look at those pay-outs, the $1 exacta averaged $39.50 or 38-1, the 50-cent trifecta was good for $183.95 or 366-1 and the 10-cent super returned a monster $195.38 or 1952-1. Again we’ll start with $1 3-horse box a $6 bet and in the 2nd race the favorite won and the 3rd favorite at 6-1 was 2nd and returned $21.20. A profit of $15 or $2.50 return on each dollar bet. The trifecta would have cost you $21 to box your 3 horses to run 1st or 2nd and then the field for 3rd and the pay-off was $254.60, a profit of 233.60 and ROI for each dollar bet of more than $11. The superfecta bet of boxing your 3 horses to finishes 1st and 2nd (an exacta bet) but then boxing them with the field to run 3rd and 4th would have cost you $25.20 for the 10-cent bet and you would have received $393.45, a $368.75 profit and a $14.75 profit return on each dollar bet.
These are just a couple of examples and yes of course you can find scenarios where the exacta is more profitable but most of those are in small fields with the favorites coming in 1st and 2nd and there is little profit margin. The largest $1 Exacta of the season paid $306.90 when 26-1 Reelfoot with Jose Zunino won the race followed by Grinder Sparksaglo at 6-1. A 3-horse box is $6 and would have profited you $300. The $21 trifecta bet of boxing those 3 horse and wheeling it with the field for 3rd returned $786.45 or a $765 profit and the $25 10-cent super to do the same was good for $1,015.82 or a $990 profit.
We are willing to surrender to the exacta players who win $3 more dollars with 2 favorites over our chance to win a house payment. But you must be comfortable in what wagers you bet, how much you wager and which strategies to undertake. This is the beauty of horseracing so many ways to play your choices.
50-cent Pick 3
The high pay of the season just occurred this past Saturday when Remembertobreathe at 11-1 with Alex Anaya kicked off the 5th race pick 3. 7-1 Laker Jet was the 6th race winner with Joree Scriver and the 3 in a row finished with Extractor at 6-1 with Alex Cruz. Handicappers that strung those 3 together got back $786. For the day the Pick 3 returned a healthy 445-1. The season high average topped pout at 201-1 on day 9 with an average $101.90 return. The pays took a hit the 7 days previous to last week when 4 of those 7 days the average pay off was less than 100-1. That dropped the season average from 192-1 down to 158-1 before the last 3 days have pushed it back up to 168-1.
There is an interesting phenomenon with the pick 3, the bet is a rolling bet or in other words you can bet it in the 1st race covering the 1st, 2nd and 3rd races, and in the 2nd race covering the 2nd, 3rd and 4th races and so on until the start of the final 3 races. The pool for the final pick 3 bet of each day is at least double the size of the other pools and many time 3x and 4x as much. Bettors can’t bet the final pick 4 and are looking for the next biggest score sink a lot in the final pick 3 so if you like just one 3rd or 4th favorite and wheel it with the fields in the other 2 races you could hit a big one by selecting just one winner. The average bet is about $25 picking 1 horse in one race and taking all and all in the other 2. If favorites sweep then the pay-off will likely be far short but again the average return is nearly $85. Get a big longshot upset and you will be collecting in the hundreds.
50-cent Pick 4
This is a favorite of many as it is one that feels like you can get on a more regular basis than the pick 5 and 6. Plus the pay-offs are also immense with a season average right now of $463.63 or 926-1. The high day was on day 9 where the average pay on the 50-cent ticket was $1,541.47 or 3081-1. The average pay of more than $1,000 has been accomplished 4 times this year. The season high peaked on day 9 with the average season pay-out hit $598 or 1193-1. Then a string of favorites hit the pick 4’s hard with 4 of the 8 next racing days where the pick 4’s averaged less than a $100, bottoming out on day 13 and the average pay-out was just $26.53 or 52-1.
The pick 4 average season pays plummeted during that run going from a high of 1193-1 all the way down to 833-1 or a $433 average return. Since then it has rebounded with a couple 2000+-1 days and the season average is now $463.63 or 926-1. The pick 4 also tends to have more in the last of the 3 opportunities to bet but the 1st pick 4 is not far behind. The middle pick 4 is the one that seems to get lost and is clearly the least bet of the 3.
50-cent Pick 5
This is the big one that most bettors focus on as there is no gimmick such as the Jackpot Pick 6 where you must be the only winner to take the whole pot otherwise you only get a consolation pay. The pick 5 only carries over if no one has all 5 and that has happened only once this season, in fact last Saturday. The pick 5 also has 3 of the top 6 pay-outs, a $33,299 return on day 18, $28,860 on day 9, $22,255 on day 11 and a $16,677 payday on day 4.
The low pays included just $70 on day 13 then less than $200 5 other times plus a 6th one for the 4 of 5 pay-off that was $126. The peak of the pick 5 was on day 11 after the $22k pay-out where the pick 5 was averaging a $7,006 return or 14012-1. Then as we saw with the pick 4 a run of favorites saw the average odds fall as low as 9302-1. It shot back up to 12486-1 after the $33k pay-off on day 18 and is currently at 11148-1 or $5,575.
To hit both the pick 4 and pick 5 without wagering a couple hundred dollars you need to have 1 or 2 singles on your ticket. For those on a budget this bet can be attainable with partners. If you have 3 buddies then each pitch in $50 for a $200 wager. This will give you a chance to spread your ticket and try to get one or two of the longer shots that will result in a healthy pay-off.
Here are some of the other stats that are of interest. Through 22 days there has been 184 races, averaging 8.4 per day with 1,229 starters. That is an average of 55.9 per day and 6.7 per race still short of trying to get to the 7 per race plateau. The total handle for 22 days so far is $31,443,187, an average of $1,429,236 per day. This is a $170,887 average per race handle.
The average number of horses did increase from 6.25 on opening day to 6.7 where it has remained for the past 9 straight days. Emerald Downs has never had less than 8 races on a card except for the 7 race card on July 3rd which is also fireworks night and several trainers don’t like to run on that day because of the noise factor.
The high handle day was day 6 with $2,038,256, the only time it reached the 2-mil mark. The handle nearly got to 2-million on days 10, 11 and 19 where it was over 1.8-million each day. The high average handle reached so far was on day 11 with the season average at $1,569,874 and the only time the average race handle was above $180,000 at $181,775. The lowest handled day was day 13 followed by day 14, both less than 1.1-million. The next 2 lowest handle days are the last two Saturday nights at barely 1.1-million and 1.09-million.
“Low” Bridge Jumper
On Sunday we had a low bridge jumper lay-out at least $10k to show on 1-9 #4 Cobra Jet. With about 2 minutes to post there was almost as much money bet to show on the overwhelming favorite as there was to win. For those who don’t know a bridge jumper will lay out a large bet to collect the minimum guaranteed 5% return the track must pay even if they have to pay more than what is in the pot. This is the only time a track can lose money on a race. There have been several instances over the years where there have been show bets of $100,000 and if they win they would collect $105,000 taking the 5% profit. But it is those cases when the big favorite doesn’t hit the board you get crazy show pay-offs.
On September 13, 2009 there was a $100,000 show bet on Knight Raider who was 2-5. Knight raider finished 4th and 3 longshots came in 1st 2nd and 3rd. The winner, Have’n a Wild Time at 27-1 paid $56 to win, $21 to place and still a state record $187 on the $2 show. 2nd place went to 35-1 Private Fortune and paid $23 to place and $108 to show and the 3rd place horse Pistolpackingal at 29-1 returned $156.
In the case of Cobra Jet this was not an issue for the what we call “Low” Bridge Jumper and they got their 5% winnings of $500 as Cobra Jet returned $2.20 to win, $2.10 to place and $2.10 to show.
Other Big Pays in week 10
On Thursday in the 5th race Curious Sensation won at 8-1 for a nice $19 $2 win, the “combo was good for $36.40 on the $6 bet. 14-1 It’s Curlin Time placed 2nd and paid $14 on the place and they combined for a $69 exacta, a $191 tri and $109 super. In the 8th and final race the verticals paid well with the pick 4 at $500, the pick 5 $2,231 and 20-cent pick 6 the $30,925 pay-off.
Saturday, in the 1st race with just 6 horses the 3rd place finisher returned $5.40 despite the 1-2 odds on winning and paying $2.10 and the 2-1 second favorite running 2nd paying $2.20. The tri also paid $15 over the $2.60 exacta and the 10-cent super was $13.80. A $1 super of the fav to the 2nd fav to all to all would have got you $138 for a $12 wager. That’s how you turn a 1-2 shot into a 137-1 returner.
Also on Saturday, Remembertobreathe won the 5th race at 11-1 with the overwhelming favorite Buckley Bay off the board and a 9-2, 15-1 and 8-1 completed the tri and super. We would have paid at least $200 and the super maybe $300 but the tri was good for just $97 and the super $76. The 2nd pick 4 on Saturday paid a healthy $1,045 plus the other returns listed above.
Wrapping up on Sunday, there was a decent tri in the 7th stringing a 6-1 to a 5-1 to a 35-1 was good for $244 and the 6-5 fav ran 4th for a $101 super. Slack Tide who won the 8th and, the Angie C Stakes did so at a nice price returning $17.20. Combined with 9-2 Akasi was good for a $43 exacta. The get-away race of the week saw the pick 5 return nearly $6,300 and the Jackpot Pick 6 was hit for the 2nd time this week for $6,350.
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 Jose Zunino
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 Jose Zunino
6/2 R2 #5 Special Lesson 44-1 Alex Anaya
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 Jose Zunino to #8 Grinder Sparksaglo 6-1 Julien Couton
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 Jose Zunino to #8 Grinder Sparksaglo 6-1 Julien Couton to #7 Candy Zip 2-1 Juan Gutierrez
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 Jose Zunino to #8 Grinder Sparksaglo 6-1 Julien Couton to #7 Candy Zip 2-1 Juan Gutierrez to #2 So Lucky 6-1 Jennifer Whitaker
7/11/2021 R9 #6 Whidbey Prince 4-1 (Matias) to #2 Grey Point 2-1 (Couton) to #4 Run Cordell Run 3-1 (Barber) to #8 Bullet Bay 14-1 (Scriver) to #7 High Speed Chase 37-1 (Anaya)
6/16 R7 #9 Reelfoot 26-1 (Zunino) to #5 Blowing Bayou 9-2 (Cruz)
.50 Pick 3
7/17 R5 #4 Remembertobreathe 11-1 (Anaya) to #1 Laker Jet 7-1 (Scriver) to #5 Extractor 6-1 (Cruz)
.50 Pick 4
6/16 R5 #5 M Fast 8-1 (Gutierrez) to #8 Master Recovery 1-1 (Gutierrez) to #9 Reelfoot 26-1 (Zunino) to #5 Blowing Bayou 9-2 (Cruz)
.50 Pick 5
7/10/2021 R4 #3 Talking Eyes 9-1 (Gutierrez) to #1 Classic Leah 3-1 (Couton) to #1 Miss Monique 5-1 (Matias) to #6 Lolo Paniolo 6-1 (Gutierrez) to #7 Frieburg 17-1 (Martinez)
.20 Jpot 6
6/23 R3 #2 Daddy's Little Girl 8-1 (Couton) to #4 Rita Lorraine 2-1 (Gutierrez) to #3 L D' Rado Goldrush 5-1 (Radke) to #1 Buckly Bay 3-5 (Cruz) to #3 Spittin Image 6-5 (Cruz) to #7 Haynesfield Hit 4-1 (Zunino)
The Leader Boards
|Jockey Standings by Wins||Mounts||1st||2nd||3rd||4th||Win %||Top 3 %||Top 4 %||Earnings||Earnings rank|
|17||James Wooten Jr||14||0||2||1||0||0%||21%||21%||8,670||19|
1) Julien Couton: 3 wins (Ima Happy Cat in the Hastings Stakes & Papa’s Golden Boy in the Budweiser & Governor’s Stakes)
2) Juan Gutierrez: 2 wins (Daffodil Sweet in the Legislator Stakes & Cobra Jet in the King County Express Stakes)
3) Kevin Orozco: 1 win (Top Executive in the Auburn Stakes)
3) Alex Cruz: 1 win (Ms Lynn in the Seattle Stakes)
3) Heriberto “Eddie” Martinez: 1 win (Slack Tide in the Angie C Stakes)
Trainer (Minimum 3 wins)
|Trainer Standings by wins||Starts||1st||2nd||3rd||4th||Win %||Top 3 %||Top 4 %||Earnings||Earnings rank|
|17||O A Martinez Jr||34||3||6||2||3||9%||32%||41%||45,616||20|
1) Vince Gibson: 2 wins (Papa’s Golden Boy in the Budweiser & Governor’s Stakes)
1) Blaine Wright: 2 win (Top Executive in the Auburn Stakes & Slack Tide in the Angie C Stakes)
3) Dan Markle: 1 win (Ima Happy Cat in the Hastings Stakes)
3) Roy Lumm: 1 win (Ms Lynn in the Seattle Stakes)
3) John & Janene Maryanski & Riverbend Stable: 1 win (Top Executive in the Auburn Stakes)
3) Chris Stenslie: 1 win (Daffodil Sweet in the Legislator Stakes)
3) Frank Lucarelli: 1 win (Cobra Jet in the King County Express Stakes)
Owners (Minimum 3 wins)
|Owner Standings by Wins||Starts||1st||2nd||3rd||Win %||Top 3 %||Earnings||Earnings rank|
|1||Greg, Chuck Conley & Terra Firma Farm||19||10||1||2||53%||68%||$73,346||3|
|3||Gary, Deborah, Jeff & Peyton Lusk||9||5||0||0||56%||56%||$77,096||2|
|5||Fred & Cindy Desimone||8||4||0||1||50%||63%||$27,364||20|
|7||One Horse Will Do Corp & Chris Stenslie||16||3||3||2||19%||50%||$49,573||4|
1) Gary, Deborah, Jeff & Peyton Lusk: 2 wins (Papa’s Golden Boy in the Budweiser & Governor’s Stakes)
2) Tim & Sue Spooner: 1 win (Ima Happy Cat in the Hastings Stakes)
2) Ron Bohlman: 1 win (Ms Lynn in the Seattle Stakes)
2) John & Janene Maryanski & Riverbend Stable: 1 win (Top Executive in the Auburn Stakes)
2) One Horse Will Do Corp & Steve Shinmizu: 1 win (Daffodil Sweet in the Legislator Stakes)
2) Ten Broeck Farm: 1 win (Slack Tide in the Angie C Stakes)
2) R.E.V. Racing/Eclipse Partners/Lucarelli Racing: 1 win (Cobra Jet in the King County Express Stakes)
Horses (Minimum 2 wins, looking for 1st 4-time winner)
3-Atta Boy Billy
3-Papa’s Golden Boy**
2-All American Hero
2-Burn Me Twice
2-I Want One
2-Mike Man’s Gold
1) Papa’s Golden Boy: 2 wins (Budweiser and Governor’s Stakes)
2) Ima Happy Cat: 1 win (Hastings Stakes)
2) Ms Lynn: 1 win (Seattle Stakes)
2) Top Executive: 1win (Auburn Stakes)
2) Daffodil Sweet: 1 win (Wa State Legislators Stakes)
2) Slack Tide: 1 win (Angie C Stakes)
2) Cobra Jet: 1 win (King County Express Stakes)